How's Manufacturing doing in the U.S. Economy Today

I thought that I'd give you a look at how manufacturing in general is looking in the U.S. today. A good friend of mine, writes monthly comments on the government reported statistics on GDP. His name is John Leyden and here's how to find him:

John Layden

Prevel Technology

317-842-6417

www.preveltech.com

jlayden@preveltech.com

The economic data in durable goods has shown additional signs of slow but stable growth.  There are no signs of a strong or rapid recovery.  However, there are still no direct signs of a double dip recession, although concerns over commercial real estate loans are getting a lot of attention.  Residential housing market remains depressed.

With all the attention focused on the health care debate you may have missed the news on energy supplies.  New mega-field oil discoveries are at an all time high, estimated and proven reserves are at an all time high and soaring, natural gas is nearing a 100 year supply (20 years is normal).  Exxon “unexpectedly” reported new discoveries at 133% of production for the 16^th consecutive year. But the US government continues to block development.

-          GDP for Q4 was 1.5% above Q3. Annualized at 5.9%.

-          Industrial production was up 1% month-to-month.

-          Durable goods new orders increased 2.6% in January.  December revised to +1.8%.

-          Durable goods shipments declined slightly; now balanced with orders.

-          Durable goods employment stabilized

-          Durable goods deliveries are still slow (average 5.5 months). Typical level is almost a third faster.

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-          Autos remained at the “new normal” (depressed) level.  Capacity utilization is flat at 51%.

-          Single family housing starts and sales declined. New single family for sale at an all time low.

-          There are calls for the resignation of the head of the UN-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in the wake of manipulated and fabricated evidence.  He was the co-recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore.   Moves in Congress to block EPA attempt to regulate CO2 as  pollutant are surfacing.

tjos was just a summary, so if you'd like the whole GDP report just e-mail John at Preval Tech

 

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The difference Americans and those who seek to represent us.

As an American and as a manufacturer that has to earn a buck in this climate of spiraling Health costs and probably escalating taxes, I worry about where Washington is taking us. I can't take credit for this little story, but I will pass it along to you since it clearly points to why we need sweeping changes in the cast of characters that we send to our Capital in the name of "representing we the people"

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A small town had a local barber shop, and one day the florist from down the street and walked in to get a hair cut. He sat in the chair and the barber proceeded to give him his usual hair cut.After the cut, he asked about his bill, and the barber replied, 'I cannot accept money from you, I'm doing community service this week.The florist was pleased and left the shop.
When the barber went to open his shop the next morning, there was a 'thank you' card and a dozen roses waiting for him at his door. 

Later, a cop came in for a haircut, and when he tried to pay his bill, the barber again replied, 'I cannot accept money from you, I'm doing 
community service this week. 
The cop too was happy and left the shop.          
 
The next morning when the barber went to open up, there was a 'thank you' card and a dozen donuts waiting for him at his door. 

Then a Congressman came in for a haircut, and when he went to pay his bill, the barber again replied, 'I cannot accept money from you.  I'm 
doing community service this week.'  The Congressman was very happy and left the shop. 

The next morning, when the barber went to open up, there were a dozen Congressmen lined up waiting for a free haircut. 

And that, my friends, illustrates the fundamental difference between the citizens of our country and the politicians who run it.

         Just a short commentary on who we sent to Washington from:

                           The "Wiz"

Product Design and Development

Recently I asked our contributing editor Werner how he goes about starting a new project... Here's what he had to say:


Hi All,

In the Development Process for the project the start is of course the initial idea. To realize the idea we would start out with product sketches encompassing form and function.

Then we will start a concept model in Pro/E and coordinate all materials from the initial work session with the client and go on with the design process, however complicated.


After a week or two we would have our first design review
with the client to check our objectives and go on with the
first design model.

We would go ahead in a chosen direction and after a few
more reviews and refinements we have our first design ready
to prototype.

• If it is a simple design program it can take 1 to six weeks.
• Moderate design programs take 6 to 12 weeks
• Extensive design programs last the duration of time by nature + complexity

Remember:
A Good Idea + A Good Development Plan = A Good Outcome


-Werner Karwinski
Design & Development

What's this Blog all about

The idea is one that I’ve had for a very long time and tried to get working when I was the CHAIRMAN of the Machine Tool Builders trade association.

I want the Blog to be a place where potential Customers can come and ask questions and get some direction. The real objective is to direct them to the Lake County Technologies web site “where the advice is always free”. On the Lake County web site (under construction) our effort will be to develop the concept for design, tooling, automation or production with the customer and then recommend potential suppliers if the customer requires help in that department. With this effort, I am counting on my reputation being good enough that people will respect that I shoot straight, and that the referral will be genuinely directed to where the customer can get the “Right” help.

So where does all this go?

I’m not completely sure but so far I have been able to match my customers with some of my suppliers.  I set up my parts maker with a customer that needs production parts. One of my customers now makes parts for another customer as a result of working with Lake County Technologies (LCT-Inc.). The objective is to create within LCT-Inc. “Your Network to Manufacturing Excellence”.

This whole idea is one that many of you have heard me talk about over beers; Every one in this industry thinks that they are the only ones that can build that Rocket-ship to the moon. We all know that's not exactly true and that if we all worked together it would be more productive and profitable for everyone; but no one is willing to take the first step…....until now.

I’m taking the first step, and I want to promote the blog and the web site as THE PLACE TO GO FOR MANUFACTURING QUESTIONS: automation, machining, sourcing, etc. We have a custom molder, a fastener source, a stamping source, an Asian Tooling manufacturer, and the current network can get you wheels, casters, special fasteners, and investment cast parts at prices that beat the competition by 50% if volumes are over 500 parts/yr.

That’s my entire story and that’s what Lake County Technologies is all about. It used to be Lake County Equipment, but we have found in the last 6 months that we do a lot beyond EQUIPMENT. We’ve done turn-arounds, and project management, installed MRP and even helped emerging companies get their accounting systems set up. We hope to shortly have an accounting (CPA) firm as a blog contributor. We are really trying to be the one stop where YOU (Mr. emerging/struggling/new MANUFACTURER) can get not just answers, and not just consulting, but YOU can get RESULTS.

So, you get on the blog, and respond or author anything that you want as long as it’s not too commercial. I would recommend that you respond to the Lake County Technologies “The Network that Works”.

Thanks for your interest; I really think that this idea can work and that we can make the USA stronger and bring back manufacturing to our shores. We can’t do it alone: we can only do it as a team or network and by working together.

Screwed by Tolerances

Well screwed:A customer had a bracket that needed assembly. The unit used four self-tapping screws to hold it in position. The wrong disk washer bolt type was used, but that's only part of the problem. With hand assembly everything went together and the simple assembly fixture worked pretty well.

Then the production rate went up and the demand rose to about 90,000 units per month. It was time to automate, and instead of starting the screws with an operator, four automatic drivers (on fixed centers) were attempted. After many "machine caused" rejects, the parts were inspected.

Stamped parts with tolerances hole to hole mate quite nicely, but not when located on the part profile. The interference in the holes caused the screws not to start through the holes and jam in the self-feeder drivers.

Part of the problem is the way the parts were drawn and the way the holes were referenced. But a big part of the problem is a supplier that used up all the tolerance in the drawing to make up for differences in bend radius, material changes, spring-back, and take up. Selecting a supplier that was ISO qualified and could certify all the parts would be a help, but part of the issue is poor drawings and no Cpk spec on the incoming product. These are the manufacturer's problems.

The drive to lower cost parts delivered faster and with higher quality is not going to stop. The first step to being the manufacturer that can deliver better, faster, cheaper is under

standing that good parts start with good drawing and solid specifications. Responsibility for this issue falls on both the consciencious manufacturer and the qualified supplier.

We welcome your comments and criticisms, so PLEASE tell us what you think.

From Manual to Automatic assembly

Recently I worked on a project to assemble sheet metal parts with rivets. Several noteworthy aspects of this project come to mind. The first being the fact thay because people can put the parts together doesn't mean that they can be asseembled automatically.

Stamped parts that are punched and THEN formed can only be located from the stamped details; the profile or outer edges are subject to the variances of material thickness as well as hardness (springback). The customer thought that because workers could locate the parts and line up the holes for riveting, fixturing and automation could do the same but with a real reduction in labor cost: until we reviewed the part tolerances.

The tool maker had negotiated tolerances that were easy for him to meet, but in a review of the two making holes and their respective mating surfces, there was +/- over a half a hole diameter in the tolerance. So, if you locate the part, even on punched features, the holes only line up about half of the time. Okay, let's locate the mating parts when they are loaded by placing thme over pins that retract as the rivet is installed into the hole. THis worked for two of the holes, but not for all the holes. There was no way to locate the two pivot points from the inside of the parts without a piece of "loose" tooling. This was unacceptable to the customer.

The parts had an assembled tolerance of +/- 0.4 degrees and the customer required a Cpk of 1.333 on the assembled critical dimensions. The downtime requirement was very low and the requirement for efficiency was 99%+ at a rate of 360 parts per hour. The budget was tight and finally the recommendation to the customer was to load/unload the parts with operators. Install the easy rivets over retracting pins and then install the rivets in the positions with location problems manually. Inspection was to be automated.

The system generated an overall throughput increase of about 20% and had a cash payback of about 14 month based on labor savings alone. The customer was not please with the solution, and cancelled the contract. Sometimes you just have to walk away from a project if it is really not possible.

I would like to hear from any on you who have installed Pop Rivets into blind hole with no pins to line up the holes. In this case because of the way the parts are formed, all the rivets had to be install from the beakout side ir sharp edge of the stamping making getting into the hole even tougher. Do any of you out there have similar experiences that you'll share?

New Products: Inventions, Widgets, Design for Manufacturing

Let me begin by congratulating Wessss for his never
ending entrepreneurship and spirit to help all of us by
creating this blog site. His credentials and leadership
on latest projects speaks for itself.

To our followers: BadVibes, the medication is not working,
try a little extra skin cream to get back to the youthful
look I remember.
Keith, thank you for special efforts on recent projects,
no matter how many times the diameter changed.

Regarding project creations..............
Diversification and added knowledge will prevail in today's
manufacturing business whereby we all will conquer the
economy change. Networking with others is the key to
success to arrive with new clients and vendors for
features and parts needed.

It may be different regarding the way we do things.
Yet the individual steps taken are identical.
We still design, maybe with better software for
solid modeling and surfacing, to prototype parts by way
of SLA techniques. The project itself still needs 2d assembly
drawings, BOM and detail drawings with specifications.

The Design and The Project Plan is the road towards
the goal we want to achieve.
Sit and think is good, but you have to get started.

We still build plastic injection molds, die cast dies,
progressive metal stamping dies and form stations,
fabricate metal, weld, rivet, assemble with nuts and bolts;
machine parts out of steel, aluminum and brass.
We still assemble products with special machinery and
complete assembly lines.
Nowadays robots are added to reduce labor cost and
repetitious intensity. Some mechanical functions are
taken over by electronic equipment,
special valves and sensors to prevent failure.

If you need advice, new ideas and methods to succeed in
your project venture please write us or add a comment
regarding the difficulty you have. We will provide the missing
link and guide you towards success.

Design & Development